How to solve the hottest Chinese semiconductor in

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How to solve the crisis of China Semiconductor

the price of chip IC has mushroomed, and storage, silicon wafer, MLCC, discrete devices, MCU and traders can't help it. Integrated circuits are all-round, and the end of steel wire rope is directly fixed with rope clamps. But behind the rising price tide, it seems that a pair of giant hands are promoting a "clearing action"

at the beginning of spring, Murata, a major MLCC manufacturer, issued a heavy notice, announcing that the production of some MLCC products was reduced to 50% of that in 2017 and the price was increased. The capacity order took effect from March 2, 2018. This caught downstream customers unprepared, and they became more and more panicked about the preparation of chip resistors. For a time, orders from major chip resistor factories flooded in

the worries of downstream customers have come true. This year is another restless year for passive parts. Murata announced the price increase and capacity reduction on March 2, and then wangquan and tianer technology also issued a price increase notice because of the rising cost of raw materials

although we are used to the price rise of IC factories and traders, it is rare to see the price rise at the beginning of spring. Generally, just after the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season, and the price rise is unreasonable

why do all links of the industrial chain want to raise prices

if you look back and think carefully, the price will rise since January 2018. It is basically possible to predict that the next price rise has nothing to do with demand. It will no longer be the demand side but the supply side that decides the price rise

1. IC price increase is only a short-term strategy, and mastering the terminal is the core demand for the semiconductor factory not to build a plastic production factory in the local special economic zone

the shortage and rise in price caused by memory began in the previous year and was transmitted to all links of semiconductor, including silicon wafer, wafer OEM, packaging and testing, and trade. The industry chain has entered a new cycle of reform. In the future, what IC manufacturers really need is not agents, but terminal customers. Only by mastering terminal customers can we truly grasp the market, and then we can more accurately allocate production capacity, so that the development of the industry is more in line with the future development direction of the entire manufacturing industry. Manufacturing will move from production to order to production on demand, first configuring demand and then configuring production factors. As a manufacturing industry, the chip IC industry should also adapt to the new future trends. If the original factory can't take the initiative to grasp the market dynamics, it will be difficult to accurately grasp it by relying on the passive feedback of agents and traders

2. IC price increase is not only the pursuit of profit, but also a sharp tool to harvest end customers. It can be said to be both an end and a means

the internal reason for the original factory's action of "strengthening walls and clearing fields" is to pursue higher profits and harvest end customers. The upstream and downstream relationship of trade friendly cooperation has become antagonistic, and the contradiction has begun to escalate. The core reason is that the balance of interest distribution in the industrial chain has been broken, and the original factory needs more interests, and the agents hope to keep the original profits. The rapid penetration and layout of IC original factories to terminals is not only to maintain the stability of profits, but also to achieve long-term development, so as to accumulate energy and play a game with the rise of China's integrated circuits in the future

3. Big rise outside, no rise or slight rise inside, and carry out strong encirclement and suppression of end customers

with the improvement of the layout of source industries such as Samsung, arm, Broadcom, Qualcomm and TSMC, they build, acquire and participate in shares, and accelerate the layout of the entire semiconductor industry chain. They have strong capital strength, strong market development ability and long-term deep cultivation of the semiconductor industry, which will pose a direct threat to the newly rising state-owned semiconductor factories. In the face of rounds of price increases, they have both internal needs and external motivation. Samsung has made money for ten years in three years, and it takes ten years to kill you. This is also their encirclement and suppression of China semiconductor. Without war, we have lost

4. The market with rising prices is the best reason to maintain high gross profit in the face of customers

in the face of rounds of price increases, from panic to stocking and then slowly adjusting customer prices, most of them successfully adjusted customer prices and increased gross profit in the second half of 2017 by taking advantage of the whole market atmosphere of price increases. The income is better than when the price is stable and falling. At the same time, in the face of the increase of hard costs such as rent, labor, environmental protection, etc., they also need better gross profit to stabilize the rise of costs. Downstream customers are more panic about chip resistance material preparation, but in the face of customers' slow rise and rapid fall, only the market continues to maintain the atmosphere of price rise can stabilize their prices. This innovative solution can save 10 (1) 5% of raw materials. When the price rises, it is not easy to rush for orders at low prices. If it is in the face of falling prices or falling prices, it will be under double pressure from customers and peers, and it is difficult not to fall

with the clarification of the national integrated circuit policy, the real economy comes first! Foreign IC imports are bound to show a situation of short-term volume and long-term price rise! The break of this situation may be that only the complete rise of China's integrated circuits will return to rational prices. After all, the right to speak is not here

looking at all links of the upstream and downstream of the integrated circuit industry, few people hope to drop prices, so the market in 2018 is bound to cause price increases will be normal

the IC business ecosystem that is quietly changing

is soaring, and China's semiconductors have no way out. However, it must be clear that a long-term high price market state is difficult to maintain for a long time year after year. In the end, it is necessary to return to the essence of the market and adjust the market price and capacity layout by supply and demand. The overall transformation of the manufacturing industry and the continuous deepening of supply side reform are bound to affect and change the business model of the integrated circuit industry

the best time is also the worst time. The best time is to seek change. The best time is not to plan for the future, which is the worst time when the failure and damage of glass pipes are becoming more and more serious

the price rise in 2018 will be normal, and 2018 will be a year of change for the semiconductor industry! It is not the policy, the market or the competitors that will eliminate you, but the times. Keeping pace with the times and looking to the future is the right way. China is returning to the top of the world. This is the best era and the worst era. It all depends on how you grasp it. 2018 is spring, are you ready

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI