The hottest Li Yizhong talks about eight issues of

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On April 9, Li Yizhong, Minister of industry and information technology, attended the 2010 economic and trade situation report meeting and made a special report. The conference was hosted by the China Federation of industrial economics. Responsible comrades from the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the people's Bank of China and other departments attended the meeting and delivered speeches. Leaders of relevant industry backbone enterprises, key industry associations and relevant government departments attended the meeting

Li Yizhong reported on the relevant situation of China's industrial development in his report, and talked about eight major issues that need attention in the current development of industry and informatization

Li Yizhong makes a report

first, China's industrial economy continues to improve, but we should not be too optimistic

since this year, China's industrial economy has continued to maintain a continuous positive development trend. In January, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 20.7%, 2.2 percentage points faster than that in December last year, and 16.9 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year; The export delivery value of industries above designated size increased by 22.5% year-on-year, 10.1 percentage points faster than that in December last year, and 39.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year; The ex factory price of industrial products (PPI) continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%; Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size achieved a profit of 486.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times, down 37.3% in the same period last year; Industrial fixed asset investment increased by 21% year-on-year, down 3.5 percentage points from the same period last year; The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 2505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9 year-on-year, 2.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year

on the whole, the situation in the first two months of this year is much better than that in the same period last year, and the upward trend of China's industry has been further consolidated. However, we should not be too optimistic. We must be soberly aware that the further recovery is not equal to the fundamental improvement of the situation, and we must see the problems existing in it

in January, the rapid industrial growth was mainly based on the low base in the same period last year. In the first two months of last year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by only 3.8% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate in the past decade. From the month on month growth rate, from December last year to this year, it was only 1.4%, 2.1% and 1.6% respectively. From this point of view, the current growth is still a restorative rebound. From the perspective of the whole macro-economy, the current economic recovery mainly depends on the pull of investment and policy support. The willingness of private investment is not strong, the income of urban and rural residents is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the policy effect of stimulating domestic consumption and investment growth may be weakened. Therefore, we should continue to improve and implement the ten major industrial restructuring and revitalization plan and various policies and measures to encourage consumption, strive to maintain positive quarter on quarter growth rate, and ensure the steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy this year

second, exports are still in the process of recovery, and there is still great uncertainty in the future. Although the export situation improved greatly in August, the vast majority of industrial products were sold domestically, and the export delivery value of industries above Designated Size accounted for only 12.9% of the total sales value. Under the pressure of market competition, the comprehensive price level of China's export products fell by 5.4% year-on-year in August. In particular, it should be noted that after the crisis, international trade protectionism has risen significantly, and some developed countries have beggar their neighbors. On the one hand, they have set up various tariff and non-tariff barriers on China's export commodities. In the first two months of this year, 16 foreign trade remedy investigations have been carried out on China's products, involving US $1.17 billion, an increase of 1.36 times year-on-year; On the other hand, trying to put pressure on the appreciation of the RMB has led some export enterprises in China to take short orders and small orders instead of long orders and large orders. The fundamental improvement of industrial exports is still facing greater obstacles and resistance. We should also note that the improvement in exports in the first two months of this year has a lot to do with the structural tax reduction policies implemented last year, such as tax cuts, tax rebates, tax credits, etc. if the policy strength is weakened, exports may still encounter difficulties

third, the ex factory price of industrial products has increased significantly, which may aggravate inflation expectations. In 2009, the international crude oil price continued to rise, nearly doubling from $40/barrel at the beginning of the year. The International Energy Agency predicts that the global average daily oil demand will rise to 86.6 million barrels this year, and oil prices are likely to continue to rise. By the end of March this year, the price of oil futures had reached US $82.9. The pricing power of iron ore lies in the three major iron ore producers, who recently proposed to increase by 90%. Driven by the rising prices of international crude oil and iron ore, the price index of raw materials, fuel and power in China has changed from negative to positive since December last year, rising by 3%, rising by 8% in January and 10.3% in February this year, and the increase is expanding. It will not only affect steel enterprises, but also the construction and manufacturing industries, and eventually lead to the rise in the price of consumer goods, affecting the realization of the target of CPI increase of 3% this year. Therefore, we must be highly vigilant against the rise in the price of industrial products

fourth, the industries with high energy consumption and high pollution are growing too fast, and the task of energy conservation and emission reduction is arduous, especially the completion of energy conservation goals is very difficult. The outline of the eleventh five year plan clearly states that during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, the energy consumption per unit of GDP should be reduced by about 20%, and the total emission of major pollutants should be reduced by about 10%. This is a binding indicator and must be completed. However, judging from the progress made at the end of last year, the task to achieve this goal this year is very arduous. However, the growth rate of high energy consuming industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals and building materials was as high as 21.6%, exceeding the growth rate of the whole industry. This situation further aggravates the difficulty of completing the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, and will exert great pressure on the supply of factors such as coal, electricity, oil and gas. In fact, the situation of tight energy supply and power shortage has appeared in the fourth quarter of last year

in general, for the current industrial development, we should not only see the positive side of the recovery and further enhance confidence, but also see that there are still many uncertain and unstable factors, enhance risk awareness and awareness, resolutely implement the central decision-making and deployment, firmly grasp the implementation of various tasks, promote the steady and rapid growth of industrial economy, and accelerate the transformation of industrial development mode

Second, it is urgent to change the mode of economic development

this is a scientific decision made by the Central Committee according to the domestic and international situation. Industry is the main body of the national economy. The key to changing the development mode is industry, and the difficulty is also industry. The key to changing the mode of development is to work hard to speed up and have a sense of urgency, a sense of crisis and a sense of restlessness. Please remove the oil collector and add a gasket between the oil collector and the pump. At the 17th CPC National Congress, it was proposed to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development and promote economic growth from mainly relying on investment and cash, taking the after-sales service of Jinan meters as an example, to relying on the coordinated pull of consumption, investment and export, and from mainly relying on the secondary industry to relying on the coordinated drive of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, From mainly relying on increasing the consumption of material resources to mainly relying on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of workers, and management innovation. Looking back, we have not paid enough attention to these three changes in the past two years. The outbreak of the international financial crisis once again made us realize the importance and urgency of changing the mode of development

(1) the impact of the financial crisis is an impact on the development mode. On the surface, the impact of the financial crisis is an impact on the speed of economic growth, but in essence, it is an impact on the mode of economic development. Internationally, first, it is difficult to sustain excessive reliance on debt consumption. Data show that the final consumption of high-income countries accounts for 80% of the world, of which the United States accounts for 30%. Excessive debt consumption has brought great hidden dangers to economic development. In 2009, the US fiscal deficit reached US $1.47 trillion, accounting for 10.3% of GDP (China's 950billion yuan, accounting for less than 3% of GDP). Second, the economic structure of developed countries is greatly virtualized, and the risk is too great. From 2001 to 2004, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 13 times in a row. The excessively loose monetary policy drove banks to lend a lot, causing a real estate foam. After 2004, there were 17 consecutive interest rate hikes, raising the federal funds rate from 1% to 5.25%. As a result, a large number of borrowers failed to repay the loan, and a large number of financial derivatives devalued and burst, causing the subprime mortgage crisis. Some emerging economies and resource rich countries are also affected by the massive entry of foreign exchange into the U.S. market

from a domestic perspective, first, excessive dependence on foreign markets is unsustainable. China's dependence on foreign trade reached 60% in 2008 and 46% in 2009. High dependence on foreign trade often contains high risks. Once external demand declines sharply, the troika that drives the economy will inevitably lose balance. The financial crisis is the best example. Second, the extensional and extensive model is unsustainable. At present, China has become a manufacturing power with global influence. In 2008, China's output ranked first in the world with 210 kinds of industrial products, and the export of industrial products accounted for 12.7% of Global trade, making it the world's largest exporter of industrial products. However, it is large but not strong. It relies too much on material resource investment to promote growth. The annual industrial emission of carbon dioxide is about 4.7 billion tons. If it continues, the resource environment is difficult to support

(2) the stabilization and recovery of China's economy mainly depends on investment and the best policy support of mechanical testing of building materials and metal materials, and the endogenous power of enterprises is insufficient. In 2009, the national economy grew by 8.7%, of which investment contributed the most, 8 percentage points, consumption contributed 4.6 percentage points, and net exports contributed - 3.9 percentage points. The contribution of investment and consumption is inseparable from large-scale investment and effective policies. Driven by large-scale infrastructure and real estate investment, steel output increased by 13.5% last year, and the benefits of small steel enterprises are better than large steel enterprises, because rebar, wire rod and other products required for infrastructure and real estate construction are mainly produced by small steel enterprises. Similarly, driven by policies, China's auto production reached 13.79 million last year, an increase of 43%. Such results were achieved when the auto industry in other countries in the world was in recession. Policies and measures such as going to the countryside, halving the purchase tax of low emission passenger cars, and replacing the old with the new played a great role. There is also the export tax rebate, which increased by 153 billion yuan last year, with a total of more than 700 billion yuan. It is hard to imagine how many small businesses would go bankrupt without the 700 billion yuan. The improvement of the economic situation from January to February this year also benefited from investment and policy support to a large extent. Once the policy is withdrawn, economic growth is likely to fall down

(3) the adjustment of the world economic structure accelerated after the financial crisis. Therefore, through this certification, the economies of all countries in the world are actively trying to develop in a good direction. However, the adjustment and recovery of the hit enterprises in the crisis will take time, and the cultivation and formation of new growth points will take time, so the demand is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. At present, the unemployment rate in developed countries remains high. From the perspective of development prospects, the global economy will enter a period of low-speed growth in the coming period. Experts predict that the world economy will grow by 3% this year, which is a very good figure. From 2002 to 2007, the world economy witnessed a period of rapid growth, with an average growth rate of 4.4%. In the face of major changes in the global situation, after the crisis, countries all over the world have planned for in-depth economic adjustment, put forward development strategies and ideas such as Reindustrialization, low-carbon economy, smart earth, and actively seize the strategy

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